As the rumor mill continues to heat up surrounding the next-generation Xbox – the Xbox 720, Xbox 3, Loop, or whatever it really ends up being called – the console has begun to take shape in the public consciousness. Certain rumors have been popping up frequently enough that they’re likely to be on target, other whispers are so obvious they’re bound to be true, and some mutterings are so off base they have to be false. Piecing all that together and surveying the Xbox Next landscape for ourselves, we’ve compiled a list of three reasons why the 360’s successor – almost certain to hit in the fall of 2013 – will likely rock the world... and three reasons it probably won’t.

WILL:

Kinect 2.0 
Yeah, we said it. Despite its success, Kinect has failed to gain any tangible traction with the core-gamer crowd that’s carried the Xbox platform to the top of the console heap. Ultimately, Kinect is an amazing technology on paper that’s limited in real-world gaming application by low-resolution hardware and space limitations (that is to say, you need a lot of it). Remember, though, that Microsoft almost always nails it on the second try; The Xbox 1 was a foot in the door. Xbox 2.0 (a.k.a. Xbox 360) was a breakthrough. They dabbled with Xbox Live Arcade on the first Xbox, then made it sing as an integral part of the platform on Xbox 360. Xbox Live was appealing when it first launched, but on 360 it’s indispensable. Even Windows didn’t make Microsoft the world’s richest company on the first try (OK, so that took three versions, but we digress…).

Brave new IPs 
This generation has gone on longer than any to have preceded it, and the stakes are now so high (read: development costs on triple-A titles easily approach $50 million) that publishers are unwilling to take risks on original IPs with such a high installed base to sell to. As a result, we’re seeing an inordinate amount of franchises getting their third and fourth iterations on Xbox 360 and very few fresh ideas outside of Xbox Live Arcade. When the game resets for the new Xbox, we’ll finally begin seeing some new worlds created.

MMOs 
OK, so we were certain that we’d get massively multiplayer online games this generation, and it didn’t happen. As Microsoft slowly embraces new revenue models (such as free-to-play) and Xbox Live continues to grow into an even bigger foundation for the entire Xbox brand, however, it appears inevitable that Xbox Next will finally open the floodgates for the genre on consoles. Microsoft must be foaming at the mouth at the thought of securing a version of Blizzard’s still-technically-unannounced “Titan” project on 720, no?

WON’T:

Killer app shrouded in uncertainty 
The system’s strongest brand and historically killer app – Halo – will be more manufactured than nurtured now that the father of the franchise (Bungie) is no longer in charge. Bungie needed to delay Halo 2 – the most important game in the Xbox 1’s history – and Microsoft gave them carte blanche. We don’t expect the same treatment to be afforded to 343 Industries, a studio created and wholly owned by Microsoft. In short, even though we've enjoyed their work thus far, the new franchise keepers are much more likely to be pushed around by their parent company. Like it or not, Halo is just a bullet-point on a spreadsheet now. It’s not Bungie’s baby anymore.

Modest hardware specs 
Industry whispers speculate that early dev kit target machines are packing AMD 6000- or 7000-series graphics cards. Each of these is approximately a mid-range PC card today (forget about how they’ll be regarded in 2013!) and would be included in the box due to its more modest power requirements. The Xbox 360’s ATI-sourced Xenos GPU, by contrast, was a world-beater in November of 2005 when the system released. Also, rumors abound that 720p will remain the target resolution, meaning next-gen artists will be stuck with the same ol’ canvas to paint on for another 8-10 years. What, no 1080p?

3D hasn’t taken off...nor do you want it to 
Let’s face it, 3D is a fun gimmick and works in short bursts…like when you’re at the movie theater. But it hurts many folks' eyes to stare at 3D for longer stretches (such as Gears of War 3’s 12-hour campaign and Batman: Arkham City’s 15-hour adventure). Even if 3D were to become as ubiquitous as HDTV, take Skyrim as an example. Would you even want to spend 100 hours with active-shutter 3D glasses searing your eyeballs?