Back in the really old days, games ran to a pretty tight schedule in terms of their development cycle. If you're an informed gamer, you probably know about Atari's ET the Extra Terrestrial from 1982, which took just six weeks to go from Howard Scott Warshaw’s cubicle to retailers so it could meet Christmas deadlines. Needless to say, it wasn't great – in fact, it's regarded as one of the worst games of all time, and set the ball rolling for an industry wide crash in the US in 1983.

That's far from the only horror story about that sort of thing. And though it's easily the most horrible, it's pretty easy to make a case for why the occasional delay can be a good thing. As an oft-repeated maxim in the game development community goes: “A delayed game is only late until it ships, but a bad game is bad forever.”

We do say “the occasional delay,” though. There have been a lot over the past few years – the very recently released Burnout Paradise, for example, was meant to be out before the end of last year. Are we going to see this happen with practically ever second game from now on? We decided to put on our bookie's hats and rattle off the odds for some of this year's upcoming titles. (Remember, the games that are most likely to experience delays are the ones with lower ratios — smaller numbers mean more likely .)

Star Wars: The Force Unleashed
Original Date: Summer 2008
Odds of a Delay: 13:1
Projected Date: Very, Very Late Summer 2008

LucasArts can be a little vague in regards to, well, mostly everything that goes on in its offices these days. We do know that this game has been in development for quite some time, and we know that there are a number of tie-in products slated for release at the end of August: a book, a series of comics and a tabletop RPG, among other things. We also know Force Unleashed has hit delays in the past, and that very little has been shown around.

So will it hit its target this time around? The Force is a little cloudy on that, but we wouldn't be surprised if the release date is more late August than early June. The tie-ins probably mean it can't be any later than that, however.

Indiana Jones
Original Date: Mid-2008
Odds of a Delay: 8:1
Projected Date: Late 2008

LucasArts has probably kept details of its latest Indiana Jones title even closer to its chest than it has with the Star Wars game; literally nothing has been seen beyond tech demos and concept art so far. It's expected that the game will see release at around the same time as the movie – May 2008 – but that doesn't seem entirely likely at this point, simply because of the utter lack of press coverage.

A delay is made even more likely by the fact that the game isn't even a direct tie-in to the film. If the company can ride off the popularity drummed up for the series by the movie for a few months – not a huge stretch, let's face it – a year-end release probably wouldn't hurt sales one bit, particularly if there’s a holiday video release for the film and therefore a second wave of marketing to ride. Plus, the good-to-bad Indy game ratio is a little off right now, so waiting for a really polished game would be wise and welcomed.

Alone in the Dark
Original Date: Q2 2008
Odds of a Delay: 10:1
Projected Date: Q3 2008

It's been seven years since the last Alone in the Dark game, and that one turned out to be something of a disappointment anyway. Eden Games are certainly trying for something interesting with this series reboot with their 30 minute “episodes” making up the gameplay, but is it holding up the release? It sure seems like it. In addition to the fact that not much has been seen of Alone in the Dark, despite a release date set for just a month or two from now, there's also the fact that it was meant to be out at the end of last year.

At this point, it seems pretty likely that we'll be seeing this title coming out later in the year. It could be a second-quarter release, but the amount of press dedicated to it seems to point more towards third. As for whether the gameplay gambits can bring the classic series back to strength, well, that's something else entirely.

Banjo Kazooie 3
Original Date: 2008
Odds of a Delay: 30:1
Projected Date: Early 2009

Rare have always had a slightly standoffish relationship with release dates. Kameo, for example, was originally intended as a GameCube title, before being converted to an original Xbox title and then finally appearing in 2005 on Xbox 360. Microsoft’s acquisition of Rare probably affected things there more than actual tardiness on the team's part, but it's hardly the first time the company has released a game later than expected. Perfect Dark was two years late, and its sequel was supposed to be an Xbox title for a while there, too.

So even though a whole year does seem like a long time for the Banjo team to get the game out, don't be surprised if you're not playing it until 2009. Rare seem to have picked up a desire for perfection from its time working under Nintendo's wing, along with all the postponements that tends to bring with it.

Alan Wake
Original Date: 2008
Odds of a Delay: 25:1
Projected Date: Early 2009

Remedy Entertainment have done a pretty admirable job of keeping tight lipped regarding the release date for their self-described “psychological action thriller.” A target of 2007 was thrown around for a while, but the team seems to be talking 2008 all the way nowadays.

Then again, the company has been just as likely to respond with “When it's done” as often as it will with “2008,” so the idea of it being a 2009 game doesn't seem completely out of the realm of possibility. One thing's for sure: Remedy is committed to making Alan Wake something very special, and won't be rushing out anything that doesn't meet expectations.

APB
Original Date: 2008
Odds of a Delay: 6:1
Projected Date: 2009

You might not recognise the name, but you'll certainly recognise the talent behind it: APB is being produced by Crackdown developers Real Time Worlds. However, as a “massively multiplayer online free form combat and driving-based game,” it's a good deal more ambitious than the company's previous work. So while this kind of thing isn't totally unheard of on PC (for which it's also being developed), the 360 version will tread very new ground. And that means technical issues.

Real Time Worlds has been very quiet about the game. It wouldn't be out of the question to start seeing a little bit of information appearing throughout 2008, but the Scotland-based company is aiming very high in regards to what it wants to achieve with the gameplay of APB. Seeing the actual game on shelves would come as a pretty massive surprise.

Too Human
Original Date: Spring 2008
Odds of a Delay: 20:1
Projected Date: Late 2008

Talking original dates when talking about Too Human can get a little complex – the game was initially shown in 1999 as a PlayStation game, then moved to GameCube, before finally finding a home on the 360. Exactly when it's going to be moving into that home is anyone's guess.

At this point, the only real thing that makes a Spring release likely is that Silicon Knights head honcho Denis Dyack has commented that he wants to see all three planned games in the series on the 360, and achieving that goal could be difficult if the first chapter doesn’t come out sooner than later. However, problems with tech licensed from Gears of War developer Epic could easily account for another setback, but we’d still think we’ll see something by the end of the year, in a worst-case scenario.

Fable 2
Original Date: 2008
Odds of a Delay: 20:1
Projected Date: 2009

Even though it's been in development for a number of years now, a delay until 2009 probably wouldn't shock too many people. It's clear that Lionhead — and Peter Molyneux in particular — have big plans for this one. More to the point, though, they have big plans they want to perfect this time around.

The first game was heavily criticised for not living up to Molyneux's promises, and while it might be expecting too much for him to have completely learned his lesson, he does seem to have tempered his legendarily enthusiastic pre-release discussions a little over the past year or so. Does this mean he'll be keeping the game close until it looks exactly the way he envisioned it? The Magic 8-Ball says “All signs point to 'yes'” on this one.

Fallout 3
Original Date: Late 2008
Odds of a Delay: 15:1
Projected Date: 2009

Leaving aside the fact that Bethesda has found itself under a mountain of pressure from fans of the first two games to get this exactly right, there's one very simple reason why 2008 probably won't see the release of Fallout 3. After attaining the rights to work on the game in 2004, Bethesda commented that work wouldn't commence until after the Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion project was done and dusted.

Given Oblivion didn't hit shelves until March 2006, that means the company will need to have everything wrapped up in around two and a half years. That's not unheard of, but Bethesda isn't known for rushing games out the door either — it seems far more likely that Fallout 3 will be pushed into 2009.

Saints Row 2
Original Date: 2008
Odds of a Delay: 15:1
Projected Date: 2009

The first Saints Row did well on the 360, taking advantage of a lack of actual Grand Theft Auto games and giving a sandbox hungry audience what it desired. But with Grand Theft Auto IV set for release in April (yes, really), how will Saints Row 2 publisher THQ react?

It's unlikely that we'll see Saints Row 2 pushed out in the first half of the year, but THQ is faced with a weird decision: Fight GTA for holiday dollars and attention, or just take the time to polish and release next year? In other words, late or later than GTA? If GTA’s sales are consistently strong throughout the year, you could make an argument for getting it out in 2008 to capitalize on the genre interest, or you could say 2009 looks clear for another franchise to dominate. Tricky.

Halo Wars
Original Date: Late 2008
Odds of a Delay: 10:1
Projected Date: 2009

Even though a playable demo was available at last year's E3, there's one fact that makes it very possible that we'll be seeing delays on the Halo RTS: Microsoft doesn't need to rush this to release, because it'll sell whenever it comes out. Call us cynical, but we get the feeling that a Master Chief Horse Adventures would probably be a million-seller at this point. Heck, we'd buy it.

That said, Microsoft is going to want to be very careful about how it handles the series. One wrong move — one average game! — could sour Halo's otherwise unblemished reputation, and that could end up costing more than a late 2008 release could earn.